Astronomers have identified a near-Earth asteroid named 2024 YR4, measuring between 40 to 90 meters in diameter, which has a 2.2% chance of impacting Earth on December 22, 2032. This probability translates to approximately a one-in-45 chance, leading to its classification at level 3 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale—a rating that indicates a potential for localized destruction but not global catastrophe. The asteroid was discovered on December 27, 2024, by the ATLAS survey in Chile.
The potential impact of 2024 YR4 is comparable to the 1908 Tunguska event, where an asteroid of similar size caused extensive damage over a vast area in Siberia. If 2024 YR4 were to collide with Earth, it could result in significant localized devastation, including powerful shockwaves, fires, and atmospheric disturbances. However, experts emphasize that the current impact probability is based on preliminary data, and as more observations are conducted, the likelihood of impact is expected to decrease.
In response to the potential threat, international space agencies are closely monitoring 2024 YR4. The International Asteroid Warning Network issued a notice on January 29, 2025, prompting major telescopes to gather additional data on the asteroid’s trajectory. Plans for possible deflection missions are being considered, drawing on the success of NASA’s DART mission, which demonstrated the feasibility of altering an asteroid’s path. The European Space Agency is also involved in discussions to assess and mitigate the hazard posed by 2024 YR4.
